Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.